IMF Says World at Risk of 'Economic Derailment’

Global Economy Faces Rising Risk of Economic Derailment - IMF

The International Monetary Fund – IMF has advised that the global economy tends to face a rising risk of economic derailment. David Lipton, Deputy Director has called for urgent steps to increase global demand. He had mentioned in his speech to the National Association for Business Economics in Washingtonrecently, that they are clearly at a delicate juncture. He warned that the IMF’s latest reading of the global economy indicates once again a weakening baseline.

His comments have come up after weaker than expected trade figures from China portrayed that the exports had plunged by a quarter from a year ago, in February. With the second largest economy of the world often stated as `the engine of global growth’, weaker global demand for its goods seems to be read as an indicator of the general global economic climate. IMF have already mentioned that it would be likely to downgrade the present forecast of 3.4% for global growth when it tend to release in April, the economic predictions. International lender had warned last month, that the world economy seemed to be highly susceptible and had called for new efforts to spur growth.

Downside Risks Clearly Pronounced

Ahead of last month’s Shanghai G20 meeting, in a report, the IMF had mentioned that the group need to plan a co-ordinated stimulus programme since the world growth had reduced and could be derailed by market turbulence, the oil price crash as well as geopolitical conflicts. In his speech in Washington, Mr Lipton had stated that the burden to lift growth falls more squarely on advanced economics which tend to have fiscal room to move.

He added that the `downside risks are clearly much more pronounced than earlier and the case for more forceful and concerted policy action has become more compelling. Moreover risks seemed to have increased further with volatile financial markets and low commodity prices creating fresh concern about the health of the global economy’. A swing of weak economic data had lately been added to these apprehensions and the US ratings agency Moody’s had downgraded its outlook for China from `stable’ to `negative’.

Time to Support Economic Activity

The rising unemployment is also another worry as Beijing tends to slowly shift its economy from over dependence on manufacturing and industry to more services and consumer spending. The economy of China seems to be growing at the slowest rate in 25 years which has resulted in considerable uncertainty in the financial markets all over the world leading to sharp falls in commodity prices.

Lipton has commented that `together with bank repair wherever needed and with adequate targeting on infrastructure, this approach could create jobs and probably reduce public debt-to-GDP ratios in the medium term by motivating nominal GDP as well as support credit and financial stability. On strengthening the global outlook, this coordinated action could hurry healing in the banking sector and prevent continent liabilities for the government which appear in case of inaction.

 Moreover it would also have considerable positive spill-overs to susceptible emerging economics comprising of commodity exporters which would be unable to participate in the fiscal expansion, directly. He added that at the recent G20 meetings in China, he thinks that `there was broad recognition of these risks and priorities and now is the time to support economic activity and put the global economy on a sounder footing’.

Asian Shares Slip, Though China Ekes Out Gain

Shares of China Eked Gains

Shares of China have eked out gains though most of the Asian markets have reviewed some of their latest rally, with traders assimilating weaker than expected trade data from the mainland. A market analyst at IG, Angus Nicholson had informed sources that plenty of the latest rally in stocks had been driven by major reversal or short covering in financials, materials as well as energy. However, he mentioned that momentum decreasing in the other sectors have now been falling in these sectors also.

The trade data of China that was released at about 10.30 a.m. SIN/HK time was also not positive for sentiments with the February exports dropping to 25.4% in terms of U.S. dollar, while imports fell by 13.8%, with the drops wider than anticipations. Since 2009, the decline in exports had been the largest on year drop according to Reuters.

 The Chinese markets ended higher with the Shanghai composite ending up 2.57, or 0.1% at 2,899.91 with the Shenzhen composite up 8.89 points or 0.51% at 1,750.56. Nicholson had noted that the foreign exchange reserves data of China, released overnight would probably have totally reassured markets around the prospect for further Yuan devaluation.

Official Data Released – Marked Fourth Straight Month of Decline

An official data released recently after the market close, portrayed foreign currency reserves on the mainland dropped to $3.2 trillion towards the end of February, declining from $3.23 trillion the earlier month, thus marking the fourth straight month of decline. However, the pace of outflows slackened substantially and the February figure was in line with analysts’ potentials portrayed in Reuter’s poll.Among other markets, benchmark of Japan, Nikkei 225 closed down 128.17 points or 0.76 percent at 16,783.15 extending Monday’s drop of 0.6%.

Reuters had reported revised government data, before the market opened, showing Japan’s economy had shrank at an annualized 1.1% in the final quarter of 2015 which was revised up from a initial reading of 1.4% contraction. Through the Korean Strait, the Kospi had closed down 11.75% or 0.60% at 1,946.12 while in Hong Kong; the Hang Seng index had closed down 148.14 points of 0.73% to 20,011.58.

Main Miners – Australia, Given up on Early Gains

The main miners in Australia had given up on early gains with Rio Tinto closing at 2.60% BHP Billiton less by 1.83% with iron ore producer Fortescue dropping 9.42% after surging almost 24% on Monday. Fortescue had announced before the market open that it had been in talks with Vale in order to work together to blend iron ore to meet up the demands of its consumers.

 According to the announcement there was a possibility of seeing the Brazilian miner take a 5-15% minority stake in Australian miner. On the other hand, Gold miners saw an uptick with the shares of Newscrest closing at 1.30% while Alacer Gold added 0.72%. HK/SIN time spot gold traded high at $1,269.57 for an ounce though below the Friday peak of $1,279.60, which was the highest since February 3, 2015 as of 3.13 p.m. U.S. gold for April delivery had gained overnight by 0.5% to $1,269.90 an ounce.

Suzuki Motor, Japanese automaker had closed at 3.76% after a report in the Nikkei stating that the company would issue 200 billion yen in zero-coupon convertible bonds, using most of the profits in spreading its setup in India.

China Replaces Securities Regulator Xiao Gang

Xiao Gang Replaced by Liu Shivu – China Securities Regulatory Commission

China has removed the head of its securities regulator after a stormy period in the country’s stock market, by appointing a top state banking executive in his place since leaders tend to move in restoring confidence in the economy. The announcement on the official Xinhua news agency recently trails a string of assurances from senior leaders succeeding the Lunar New Year holiday which China would be supporting in slowing economy as well as steadying its shaky currency.

According to media report, Xiao Gang has been replaced by Liu Shivu as the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission – CSRC as it tried to tackle main volatility in its stock markets. Mr Xiao had been in charge when China’s market had crashed in mid-2015 at one point and the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges had lost around 40% of their value. Mr Xiao who had become the CSRC chair in March 2013 had faced criticism for mishandling the crisis. Under his supervision, the new circuit breaker mechanism of China which was designed to limit any market sell-off had been organized twice in January in reaction to the stock market drop though was then scrapped totally after it had cause additional panic.

Departure of Xiao – Not a Surprise

Zhang Kaihua, fund manager of Nanjing-based hedge fund Huyang Investment stated that the departure of Xiao was not a surprise after the recent stock disaster and this is a role which is vulnerable to public criticism since most of the Chinese retail investors are intended to lose money in such markets. Xiao and the CSRC had come under fire as Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets of China had collapsed to about 40% within a few months last summer.

It was a further blow when a stock index circuit breaker that had been introduced in January to limit stock market losses had to be deactivated after four days of use since it was responsible for worsening a sharp selloff. The online media had labelled Xiao as `Mr Circuit Breaker’. According to Reuter’s reports, Xiao 57 had offered to resign after the `circuit breaker’ failure.A Shanghai-based analyst at Capital Securities Corp, Zheng Chunming had informed Bloomberg News that someone had to shoulder the responsibility after the suspension of the circuit breaker system.

Liu – Experience in Financial Sector

Mr Liu 54, had been the vice governor of China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, prior to becoming the chairman of the Agricultural Bankof China, which was the country’s third largest lender in 2012. On Weibo, the Chinese micro-blogging site, commentators recently played on Mr Liu’s name speculating if his tenure would bring about a `bull market’ of leave a `dead fish’ behind. Zhang stated that `Liu had a lot of experience in financial sector though there would be some policy uncertainty in the short term since it would take at least six months for the earlier banker to get used to his new role.

The managing director, sales trading at Haitong International Securities Group in Hong Kong, Andrew Sullivan said that removing Xiao had been mainly expected but by bring in the AgBank chairman; they are really not bringing anybody with a fresh market perspective but a political insider. Liu had spent major part of his career at the People’s Bank of China escalating to deputy governor, holding the post from 2006 till he left in late 2014 to head the AgBank.

China Stocks Recover, Asian Markets Breathe Sigh of Relief

Shares Recover in Asia- Chines Yuan Stable for 3rd Day

Trading seemed to remain uneven on the mainland stock market though shares recovered in Asia recently as the Chinese Yuan become stable for the third straight day. The Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +0.17% increased 0.4% to 3028.04 though traded up and down as around 1% from its earlier close.

The main stock market of China dropped 5.3% last week amidst fear that the authorities of China seemed to be unable to stem the latest chaos in the financial markets as well as s slowdown in the larger economy. In another place, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -O.14% dropped 0.1%, South Korea’s Kospi SEU, -0.21% was flat while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.84% rose 0.2%.

Where the markets seemed to be closed for national holiday on Monday in Japan, the Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -2.71% tracked Monday’s regional losses dropping 2%. The Chinese Yuan sustained to steady on Tuesday but the central bank directed the slightly weaker currency. Previously, the Chinese authorities had fixed the Yuan at 6.5628 per U.S. dollar when compared with 6.5626,on Monday.

Offshore Currency Hits Strongest Level

China’s onshore Yuan that could trade 2% below or above the fix, had traded last at 6.5733 per dollar, weaker than 6.5695 at Monday’s close and the currency had reached a five year low of 6.5956 last week. Offshore currency had hit its strongest level from the beginning of the year on Tuesday and had trade last at 6.5705.

The offshore Yuan, which tends to trade freely, on late Monday, strengthened by around 1.5% to 6.5827 to one U.S. dollar when compared to the earlier close, which helps to contract the gap between the onshore and offshore Yuan to its tightest in two months. Traders are of the opinion that the offshore Yuan is strengthening since state-owned Chinese banks tend to buy the currency, which is an intervention by central bank of China.

This had limited the supply of the offshore Yuan, thereby tightening the liquidity and sending the rate at which the Hong Kong banks tend to lend Yuan to each other overnight, to a record high of 66.815%, on Tuesday. The rate soared to 13.4% on Monday from 4% on Friday.

According to Tommy Ong, head of Wealth Management Solutions at DBS in Hong Kong commented that `a lot of channels bringing money from onshore to offshore market has been blocked which also tends to contribute to the shortage of Yuan in Hong Kong.

Beijing Continues to Affect Global Market Mood

The regions’ stock gains Tuesday, tends to offer some absolution after the chaos of the earlier week caused by a faster than anticipated depreciation of the Yuan, when the currency had fallen 1.5%. The stock regulators also seemed to come in last week in order to calm the trading stating that they would do away with a circuit breaker which tends to aggravate selling and extend a ban on big shareholders from selling the shares.

However, China shares are presently roughly just 3% above their summer low on August 27 after a 3 month retreat wiped trillions of U.S. dollars from the marketplace, sparking a global selloff. Traders as well as analysts state that they are uneasy since Chinese authorities oppose with the prospect of increasing the capital outflows from the world’s second largest economy.

Market analyst at Brokerage IG, Bernard Aw,in a morning note had written that `for now, it may seem like the tweaks that Beijing makes will continue to affect global market mood.

The Chinese Yuan is Going Global

Yuan Part of Selected Basket of Currencies

According to the International Monetary Fund – IMF, the Yuan is now part of selected basket of currencies which till now included only the US dollar, the Japanese yen, the euro and the British pound. The Yuan would not generally be a part of the basket till September 2016 and this move would not be having any immediate influence on the financial markets.

This gesture seems to be a significant one and an indication that China has been progressing faster and further on the global financial stage. It has been predicted by Nomura Securities that by 2030, the Yuan would become one of the highest three major international currencies, `a peer to the US dollar as well as the euro, as the most used currencies in the world’.

However, it all depends on whether China tends to continue its financial reforms which have been one of the major reasons of the IMF’s verdict of including the Yuan in this choice basket currency. The IMF has informed that` the decision was an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy in the global financial system’. It would bring a more robust international monetary as well as financial system.

China – Important to the Global Financial System

Nomura has informed that though the share of yuan’s trading volumes in the international currency market tends to be small, less than 2% comparative to China’s share of global gross domestic product, its daily trading volume had tripled between 2010 and 2014 from $34bn to $120bn. This indicates that there is a lot more yuan on the markets.

For the last few years, China had been working towards this and it is amazing that their extremely managed currency seems fit to enter this special basket of freely traded currencies. Beijing considers the inclusion of the yuan as an indication of how important China has become to the global financial system.

The world’s second largest economy had to push through numerous changes in recent times inclusive of enabling foreign investors in accessing its stock markets, to make this happen. The main determinant as to whether the yuan gets to the next step will depend on how transparent China would be about the way it tends to run its financial market.

Chinese Official under Pressure/Scrutiny

Considering the slowing economic growth in China, analysts have accepted that there have been some disturbing signs which the government is trying to either roll back on some the key financial changes or that those in charge may not know what they are doing. The point is that earlier this year, the effective devaluation of the year had taken the markets by surprise and the People’s Bank of China was disapproved for mishandling the communication around how the events had unfolded.

Chinese officials are now under more pressure as well as scrutiny in getting their message right. Moreover the world would also be watching to see what type of influence more yuan would have in circulating in the international markets. Should the yuan tend to be a fixture of the global economy, there is a possibility that the rest of the world would become even more exposed to what Beijing does, which will make it more important that the leaders of China push through meaningful financial changes.